If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Falls, Who Will Lead Iran? Meet the Probable Successors

If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei falls, who next? This critical question is looming amid escalating tensions with Israel, mounting domestic pressures, and no public succession plan. Iran’s 86‑year‑old Supreme Leader sits at the apex of power, and his absence would trigger a carefully guarded, high-stakes competition among elite factions.

Why Succession Matters Now

Heightened conflict: Israeli airstrikes have targeted senior IRGC commanders and nuclear facilities, weakening key pillars of Khamenei’s authority
Internal divisions: Hardliners, the clergy, and the IRGC are advising behind the scenes, anticipating a transition amid uncertainty — yet youth-led public dissent adds another unpredictable element .
Historic gap: The last major contender, President Ebrahim Raisi, died in 2024, leaving the succession process in limbo

Key Contenders for Supreme Leadership

Mojtaba Khamenei

The Supreme Leader’s son, born 1969, with strong IRGC ties.
Controls informal power circles but faces pushback over perceived dynastic succession, which contradicts Islamic Republic principles

Alireza Arafi

Deputy head of the Assembly of Experts and a senior cleric in Qom.
Holds institutional sway and religious credentials that position him as a legitimate contender

Ali Asghar Hejazi

A pivotal figure behind the scenes, serving as Khamenei’s security adviser.
Could influence the transition from the shadows rather than ascend to the top e

Gholam‑Hossein Mohseni Ejei

Hardline cleric and former intelligence minister, now chief justice.
Known for loyalty to Khamenei and strong regime credentials

Ali Akbar Velayati

Veteran diplomat and senior adviser to the Supreme Leader on foreign affairs.
A power broker who could shape policy—even if he’s not the next face of leadership

Other Figures

Ahmad Jannati, chairman of the Guardian Council and Assembly of Experts
Sadiq Larijani, head of Expediency Discernment Council and former chief justice
Ahmad Khatami, senior Friday prayer leader and Assembly member

The Selection Process Explained

Iran’s Assembly of Experts convenes in a closed session to choose the next Supreme Leader, subject to vetting by the Guardian Council. Candidates are evaluated on:

Religious credentials (must be a marja or equivalent),
Political loyalty,
Ability to preserve regime ideology and national stability.

A candidate must secure at least 45 of 88 votes, though consensus among hardliners is often preferred to prevent a split

What’s at Stake Globally

A hardliner successor would likely reinforce confrontation—with the IRGC at the forefront of foreign policy.
A moderate cleric could push for renewed nuclear diplomacy or eased tensions with the West
The succession outcome could reshape not just Iran’s direction, but also Middle East alliances and stability, which is of interest even to distant observers in Nairobi and other global cities.

If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei falls, who next? Without a clear heir apparent, Iran’s transition will be shaped by an opaque power contest among IRGC-linked figures, senior clerics, and political advisors. As Israel’s campaign intensifies and internal dissent grows, a leadership vacuum could either reinforce the status quo—or precipitate a dramatic shift.

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