A groundbreaking study published in The Lancet has revealed that US foreign aid cuts could result in more than 14 million additional deaths across the globe by the year 2030. The report paints a grim picture of what could follow if the United States withdraws 83% of its global health funding, much of it previously channeled through USAID programs. Particularly vulnerable are children under the age of five, who could account for over 4.5 million of the projected fatalities.
The Role of U.S. Aid in Saving Lives
Between 2001 and 2021, American foreign aid programs were instrumental in averting approximately 91 million deaths in low- and middle-income countries. Through initiatives targeting diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis, USAID helped fund health systems, vaccine programs, and nutrition services in over 80 countries.
The Scope of the Cuts
Under Executive Order 14169, enacted in early 2025, the U.S. government paused most foreign assistance and reassigned a majority of USAID programs to the State Department. This restructuring reduced support to thousands of global health projects. Programs in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa have already experienced major disruptions, including clinic closures, drug shortages, and suspension of child immunization efforts.
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Humanitarian Fallout
The consequences of these aid cuts are vast:
- In Cox’s Bazar, half of the health clinics serving Rohingya refugees have lost U.S. support.
- HIV/AIDS treatment for hundreds of thousands in Africa is now at risk.
- Health services for pregnant women, malnourished children, and patients with chronic diseases have been scaled down or stopped entirely.
Researchers compare the potential health fallout to a pandemic-level crisis, driven not by disease but by the absence of humanitarian support.
Global Reactions and Calls for Action
Former U.S. presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, alongside activist Bono, condemned the move, calling the dismantling of foreign aid “a historic and moral failure.” Philanthropist Bill Gates warned that an additional 8 million child deaths could occur by 2040 if the trend continues.
Multilateral partners like Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the World Health Organization have urged the U.S. to reconsider its stance. At a recent donor summit in Spain, international leaders stressed the urgent need for new funding to fill the gap left by America’s withdrawal.
The US foreign aid cuts have not only weakened critical health infrastructures but also placed millions of lives in jeopardy. With over 14 million additional deaths projected if funding is not restored, global leaders are calling for immediate action to reverse these policies. As the world grapples with ongoing health and humanitarian crises, the United States must decide whether it will continue to be a life-saving force—or walk away from decades of progress.
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