JUBA, April 2025 — The fragile peace in South Sudan is under serious threat following the controversial house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar in late March 2025. With tensions escalating, regional and international actors have launched a flurry of diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing a relapse into full-scale civil war.. Machar’s House Arrest in late March 2025 has once again placed South Sudan on the brink of political turmoil. The sudden detention of First Vice President Riek Machar and key opposition leaders has raised alarm both domestically and internationally. As fears of renewed conflict intensify, regional powers and global stakeholders have launched urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent a total collapse of the fragile peace process.
Backdrop: Machar Placed Under House Arrest
On March 26, 2025, South Sudanese security forces surrounded the residence of Riek Machar, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) and a key figure in the country’s transitional government. Along with his wife, Interior Minister Angelina Teny, Machar was placed under house arrest amid accusations of inciting rebellion and orchestrating attacks on government forces in Upper Nile State.
The government crackdown also saw the arrest of several SPLM-IO officials, including Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam and Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol. These actions, widely seen as a breach of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, have pushed South Sudan to the edge of renewed conflict.
Museveni Steps In: Uganda’s Role in Mediation
Recognizing the growing danger, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni made a high-profile visit to Juba in early April to hold talks with President Salva Kiir. Museveni, a long-time influencer in South Sudanese affairs, urged Kiir to de-escalate tensions and maintain the integrity of the peace agreement.
During his visit, Museveni reportedly pushed for the immediate release of political detainees, including Machar, and encouraged both parties to prioritize dialogue ahead of the country’s planned elections.
“The peace we’ve worked hard for must not be sacrificed on the altar of mistrust,” Museveni said, according to a statement released by Uganda’s State House.
IGAD Calls for Emergency Summit
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which played a central role in brokering the 2018 peace deal, has voiced alarm over recent developments. IGAD officials have called for an emergency summit to mediate the crisis, urging both parties to recommit to peaceful political engagement.
In a statement, IGAD demanded that South Sudan’s leadership refrain from actions that could reignite violence, adding that the country’s transition must remain inclusive and democratic.
United States Weighs In
The United States has also expressed grave concern over Machar’s detention. The U.S. State Department called on Kiir’s administration to respect the peace agreement and allow opposition leaders to operate freely.
“We are deeply troubled by the detention of Vice President Machar and other opposition figures. South Sudan’s leaders must uphold their commitment to peace and political inclusivity,” said a U.S. spokesperson.
Washington hinted at possible diplomatic consequences, including aid reviews and targeted sanctions, if the situation continues to deteriorate.
African Union Monitoring the Situation
The African Union (AU), through its Peace and Security Council, has been closely monitoring the unfolding crisis. While the AU has not yet intervened directly, it has reaffirmed support for IGAD-led mediation and emphasized the need for free and fair elections later this year.
The AU has warned that any backsliding on peace agreements will have dire consequences for the region and could trigger a humanitarian crisis affecting millions.
Civil Society and Religious Groups Join the Call for Peace
Domestically, the South Sudan Council of Churches and various civil society organizations have issued public appeals urging both Kiir and Machar to avoid escalation. The religious leaders have emphasized the human cost of renewed conflict, citing the displacement and suffering of civilians during past outbreaks of violence.
“We must never again return to the dark days of war,” said Rev. Peter Gai Lual, a prominent church leader. “The government must talk, not shoot.”
What’s at Stake
South Sudan’s 2025 national elections, which are supposed to mark the culmination of the transitional period, now hang in the balance. Machar’s SPLM-IO party has declared that the peace agreement is effectively nullified, and warned that if political space continues to shrink, they may withdraw entirely from the government.
Observers fear that unless diplomatic interventions yield quick results, South Sudan could plunge back into war — undoing years of progress since the 2013–2018 civil war, which killed nearly 400,000 people and displaced over four million.
A Tense Wait for Resolution
Machar’s House Arrest has reignited deep-seated political tensions in South Sudan and exposed the fragility of the 2018 peace agreement. With elections looming and public confidence wavering, the stakes are dangerously high. The coming days will reveal whether diplomacy can prevail—or if the country will once again descend into violence and instability.
The world is watching. And for a nation that has barely healed from the scars of war, the price of failure is too high to pay again.
